The 2023 Recession Just Got…Cancelled?

Let’s discuss the 2023 Recession, how the Federal Reserve might be able to perform a Soft Landing, what this means for home prices, and how the IRS may be changing – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan | GET MY WEEKLY EMAIL MARKET NEWSLETTER:



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As The Boston Globe Pointed Out, throughout the last 6 recessions that have been confirmed…there is an AVERAGE LAG TIME of 7.3 MONTHS between the time a recession takes place – and the time it’s actually announced. in the 44 years they’ve been operating, they have never ONCE had to rescind or change their declaration – which means, they’re extremely accurate – and as a result, the process takes almost a YEAR to compile. That’s why: we only know about it…when it’s already over.

Just recently, Goldman Sachs shared their thoughts that 4 US Cities could see a “2008-style housing crash” throughout 2023. As they say: San Jose, Austin, Phoenix, and San Diego “will likely see peak-to-trough declines of more than 25%….such declines would rival those seen around the country around a decade-and-a-half ago” – SIMPLY because: those were the areas which already saw some of THE MOST growth since 2020.

Obviously, that kind of price growth is completely unsustainable – and, with interest rates going up – we’re bound to see a rather substantial drop throughout some of the hottest markets. In fact, Goldman Sachs says that “Home prices are believed to have peaked in June of 2022,” which means – on a NATIONAL basis…we could see a decline of 10%, before growth begins to recover in 2024. On top of that, Morgan Stanley anticipates a 4% drop from stagnant demand, Wells Fargo seeing declines of 5.5%, and Interactive Brokers calling for more than 20%.

The White House just introduced: “The Renters Bill of Rights.”

Under this, The Federal Housing Finance Agency would examine limits on rent increases, and prevent tenants from being unfairly denied access to housing. In addition to that, lawmakers have called on the FTC to issue new regulations on excessive rent increases, enforce actions against price-gouging, and limit rent charged with properties that are financed with government backed mortgages.

However – unfortunately, studies have found that rent control does NOT help with housing affordability. In fact, a 1992 poll of the American Economic Association found that 93% of its members agreed that “a ceiling on rents reduces the quality and quantity of housing.”

On top of that, a Stanford study has argued that Rent Control actually has an ADVERSE affect on prices for renters and actually works AGAINST making housing more affordable.

-Rent controlled tenants were 20% more likely to stay in their unit.

-Renters were more likely to move elsewhere if they didn’t have the incentive of having their rent capped where they currently were living

-Landlords of rent controlled buildings were more likely to convert their buildings in such a way that it wasn’t rent controlled, reducing the amount of housing by 15%

-The loss of available housing drove up prices of rental units. It was found that a 6% decrease in housing supply led to a 7% increase in rental prices.


Michael Burry posted a rather ominous chart of the 2001 Dot Com bubble, showing that – the prior rebound was eerily similar to what we’re seeing today…before dropping another 30%…and, even though ANYTHING is possible, my guess is that we’re largely going to look to the FED throughout these next few months to determine whether or not the worst is behind us.

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What do you think?


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  1. Recessions are an inherent aspect of the economic cycle, and the key is to get ready and adapt. I entered the workforce during a downturn in 2009. My initial job out of college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Presently, I hold the position of VP at a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, operate my own company, and have grown my net worth by $500k in the past four years.

  2. Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.

  3. Abolishing the IRS and having a flat 30% sales tax is a great idea and easily implementable if done by the federal govt, especially given most people are using electronic payment methods these days.

    As for housing – building more won't do anything other than make everything worse. They're doing that in Australia and guess what, houses are getting more impossible to afford. Why? Because every time they build more housing or new suburbs, its always marketed as the "best thing ever" and priced according to the neighbouring areas plus a premium because its new and "fancy", no matter how average it is.

    This simply pushes the areas prices up by increasing local property values. Then to make it even worse, they let foreign companies and foreign investors (who aren't citizens or permanent residents) swoop in and buy it all up for insane prices which continues to push prices up. The only affordable property in Australia is in the countryside away from everything so if you need to work or buy food, good luck.

    Oh yeah, all these new developments are always done on the best farmland by increasing council rates (a type of property tax) so much that farmers have no choice but to sell. No farmers means no food but the govt doesn't care – they only look at the money they're making via the taxes they get from the development and sales (Stamp Duty, CGT, GST, etc.).

    Urban sprawl needs to stop – aside from destroying prime farmland, its abolishing the countryside. Cities are now so sprawled that they're becoming one. Its assumed that if the current urban sprawl continues in Victoria, Australia, that Kyneton will become a suburb of Melbourne by 2035.

  4. Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.

  5. Who cares why is the house in prices are coming down, the fact is is that they are all coming down, not just for cities, if you think that then again you are delusional, the ship is sinking, this recession is turning into a depression, why you were pushing this narrative, I’m not really sure, don’t really care, but your information is crap

  6. Just viewing my neighborhood rn and just by looking at it I can tell we are definitely heading to a recession. More than 75% of my neighbors cars are parked outside during the week. Before, when the economy had a (+) growth, during the week only 20% of their cars were parked. What does that let me know, that their employers are downsizing in work schedule’s & employees. I hope I am wrong and that they are using their vacation days early on in the year 2023. Pray for America, pray for the world.

  7. This country is a joke and chipotle is not the answer plain and simple the times the status quo everything about today's world is just nothing but trash it's pathetic it's dumb is lazy it's annoying it's bad driving it's irritating no privacy know this and that no freedom of speech by the way all these things on a sign of enslavement which leads to rebellions anyway is a complete mess out there and one that shouldn't even be the rich will only get richer the country is a joke just like whatever goofball hacker try to hack this phone but look on the bright side since there won't be a stimulus check due to the field covid placebo of a show called vaccine at least you can either get down or free bowl of ice cream hopefully or now a burrito pathetic I don't like spicy foods

  8. Rent control. I like in theory…. But will it hold….. seriously doubt it. If it will force morons who buy up houses to rent and force them to sell. Then I’m all for it. Ending income tax? That’s rich coming from a state that has tax on everything.

  9. When FED stop hiking the rates… after few months they low down the rates and then after month or more or less markets start to go down after lowing rates straight the line down. Everyone can check it in charts (interest rate + s&p500)

  10. Recession is pushed by over-spending by Uncle Joe and his crew, just like Obama! It was not like that during the trump regime, every sector of the economy is starting to falter, and the population is having to cope with the highest cost of living in nearly four decades. My question is where should we put our investment money now to better prepare for the future and a liquidity crisis? I have $102,000 to grow

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