The Worst Housing Crash Just Started

Here are the worst cities to buy or invest in real estate, why some cities are seeing such a substantial decline, and what this potentially means for you – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan | GET MY WEEKLY EMAIL MARKET RECAP NEWSLETTER: http://grahamstephan.com/newsletter

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THE HOUSING MARKET:
In terms of what’s happening today, Realtor.com found that there are 48% more active listings available on the market than there were, a year ago – and even though that sounds like a lot, it’s still just a FRACTION of what was available, prior to the pandemic.

On top of that, they also found that “No regions saw an improvement in sellers listing homes for sale in April” – which means, across the entire country…there is declining interest in listing a new home for sale, probably because fewer sellers want to give up their existing mortgage rate.

It’s also quite interesting that “The typical home spent 49 days on the market this April…which is 17 days longer than the same time last year.” However, ”homes still spent 12 fewer days on the market this April than they did in the average April from 2017 to 2019” – and this is precisely why the housing market hasn’t seen the huge crash that everyone has been waiting for.

Now, in terms of which locations are seeing the largest price increases and drops, research from Black Knight found that “Columbus, Ohio (+1.08%), Hartford, Conn. (+1.04%), and Worcester, Mass. (+1.04%) saw the largest increases…..while the sharpest one-month declines could be found in markets like Austin, Texas (–0.72%), and Provo, Utah (–0.24%).”

Beyond that, if we look at this from the PEAK of the market in early 2022….the largest price declines include locations in “Austin (–13.3%); San Jose (–11.4%); San Francisco (–11.2%); Seattle (–10.9%); Phoenix (–10%); Las Vegas (–9.4%); Boise (–9.4%); Stockton, Calif. (–9.4%); Sacramento (–8.7%); and Salt Lake City (–8%).”

Now, the good news is that – not “all” markets are at risk, and surprisingly, there are still quite a few types of real estate that are doing incredibly well. Like, Bloomberg reported that vacancy rates for “warehouse and industrial space is low, retail vacancy is only 5.7%, and hotels are garnering record revenue.”

In addition to that ”About three-fourths of commercial real estate debt generates enough income to pass banks’ recent refinancing standards without major changes” – and, delinquency rates – as of now – are still below what they were pre-pandemic.

Office space could be the exception: JP Morgan, for example, warned that “21% of office loans are destined to go bad, with lenders losing an average of 41% of the loan principal on the failures.”

Because of that, banks are expected to scale back on their lending, be more cautious about who they extend money to – and that’s likely to affect you, PERSONALLY, the next time you’re looking to buy a house, a car, or anything else that requires you to borrow some of the bank’s money.

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