The Upcoming 2021 Real Estate Collapse Explained

Here is my analysis on the 2021 Real Estate Market, what will happen to housing prices, and whether or not it’s a good time to buy or invest in a home – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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What will happen to the real estate market in 2021?

This article from the National Association of Realtors, who launched a survey among 20 top US economic and housing experts, predicted that housing would see an increase of 8% in 2021.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/top-economic-and-housing-experts-predict-post-pandemic-rebound-with-continued-job-growth-stable

THE CONTRIBUTORS FOR THIS:
Right now, lack of inventory is a big issue. It’s recently recorded that the number of homes currently listed for sale on the market is at its lowest level EVER RECORDED, going back NEARLY 40 YEARS

Second, we’re seeing incredibly low interest rates.
Rates have NOW dropped below 2.7% on a standard 30 year fixed rate mortgage…which is UNREAL.. and just for reference, last year, mortgage rates were about 3.7%…which is nearly 40% HIGHER than what we’re seeing today.

That also means – BECAUSE OF THAT – home buying demand has increased…and increased…and increased…to a BRAND NEW RECORD HIGH. A survey found that more than HALF of buyers felt like it was a good time to buy because of insanely low mortgage interest rates, so it’s no surprise that’s driving a BIG push for people to lock in a low rate while they still can.

HOWEVER…Not EVERYONE is so optimistic.

The economist, Michael Strain, mentions that, as of recently, 10% of the 8-million single family mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration were delinquent by more than three months….along with “These delinquencies are heavily concentrated among loans associated with low credit scores.” 

He then says that this is cause for concern, because the ONLY REASON we’re NOT seeing a “Wave of foreclosures” is because of a provision in the cares act that temporarily freezes foreclosures until 2021.

Well, through September of 2018…the rate of seriously diligent loans was about 3.7%…and, at any given point in time, historically, 8-9% of FHA are behind on their payments by 30 days or more…so, YES, FHA loans more than 90 days late ARE more than DOUBLE what they were just 2 years ago…but, given that – most of the time, almost 4% are consistently more than 90 days late..it’s not AS BAD as we expected.

The data company Black Knight found that 2.75 million mortgages, or 5.2% of all residential properties with a mortgage, were in active forbearance as of Dec. 8.

But, here’s a more broad perspective when it comes to this:

There are 138 million total housing units in the United States – this includes single family, condos, multi-family, and apartment buildings…and of those, 40% are completely owned outright with no mortgage.

Then – of those properties with a mortgage, which is estimated to be approximately 50 million properties…the mortgage bankers association found that that 5.83% are in a forbearance plan, which they say impacts 2.9 million households.

In order for a home to be foreclosed, it needs to be taken over by the bank – and the seller must GENERALLY owe more on the home than what it’s worth, otherwise – the seller would just sell the home on the market to avoid foreclosure. Well, the data company CoreLogic found that only 3% of all mortgaged properties are underwater, which is an ALL TIME LOW.

So, if we assume that ALL 3% of those underwater homes go into foreclosure from those 5.83% of loans in forbearance…that means only 0.1749% of mortgaged properties would be foreclosed on…or, 96,000 total homes.

So, OVERALL…based on the numbers and evidence presented to us…no, a wave of foreclosures is HIGHLY UNLIKELY of ever happening that would “Crash” the real estate market.

For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness@gmail.com

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