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EXPLAINING THE DECLINING GDP:
One, MOST of the decline was due to a decrease in INVENTORY investment, which – was BOOMING in the final months of 2021. r.
TWO, the economy also saw a decline in spending across the state, federal, and local governments…which, was likely fueled by the decrease of unemployment insurance, child tax credits, and stimulus.
Third, EXPORTS declined by 3.2%…or, in other words…less of OUR OWN goods and services were shipped and sold overseas…which, could LIKLEY be the result of the ongoing Shutdown overseas, along with the international tension.
And Fourth, we also saw an 8.5% decline in DEFENSE SPENDING, which CNBC said, knocked a third of a percentage point off the final GDP.
In terms of how a recession could impact the stock market:
From 1869 to 2018…there have been a total of 16 recessions which had POSITIVE stock market returns….in fact, of those positive recessions…the market went UP an average of 9.8%, during a time the GDP declined by 3%…. or, in other words…out of 30 recessions…HALF had no correlation whatsoever with lower stock values.
To take that a step further, since 1869…one study found that the correlation between GDP growth and stock market returns was nearly ZERO – and, on average, the US stock market peaks SIX MONTHS before the start of a recession.
According to AWealthOfCommonSense Blog…throughout EVERY SINGLE RECESSION SINCE 1945…the stock market has – at SOME POINT – seen a sell off…with the average drawdown coming in at a whopping 29.2%…
https://marketsentiment.substack.com/p/recession-primer?s=r
HOWEVER…the GOOD NEWS is that, even though there CAN be a rather abrupt sell off…by the time the recession is OVER, the market actually RECOVERS, and has posted an average PROFIT of 1.7%…with, an average gain of 15.3% the following 1 year….meaning, INVESTING DURING A RECESSION is one of the most profitable times to invest. Not to mention, in the 3 years following every single recession we have ever had…the market was 100% in the green.
If anything, Bloomberg notes that a bear market tends to be a better predictor of a recession…rather than a recession being a predictor of a bear market.
Now, that’s not to say that prices can’t go lower, or that – a recession could last way longer than anticipated, or maybe this entire thing is a fluke false alarm…but, based on EVERY other recession in the past…the best course of action is to simply stay invested…and KEEP INVESTING when times are bad…especially if we do see an actual recession.
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Thanks Joe Biden
Amazing video!!
Not the Feds is all Joe’s fault. All of it
👨🏫“The new economic catastrophe created by Joe Biden, Boris Johnson Japan and European Union.” Economic sanctions to Russia put in misery the economy of every country in the planet not just Russia. Welcome to the Joe Biden, European Union shithole economy. China is in high alert; INDIA, MEXICO, Brazil, ARGENTINA Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates know that Europe, Joe Biden, and the democrat can ‘not be trusted. They are thefts.
You are paying more than double for your gasoline since Joe Biden and the democrats killed the Trump economy; check the price of your food stupid, check your electric bill idiot, check your natural gas bill dummy. In addition, all that democrats (gun control assH) are doing for the USA economy is just selling weapons to kill people in Ukraine).
ROME (AP) — Prices for food commodities like grains and vegetable oils reached their highest levels ever last month (April) largely because of the sanctions impose on Russia by the EU. UK, USA and CANADA the “massive supply disruptions” is, threatening millions of people in Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere with hunger and malnourishment, the United Nations said Friday👩⚖
All inflation is ….is a bunch of economists debating how much the American people should pay. It's orchestrated as such . For someone to tell the feds we are gonna go into a recession and then it does happen the way the economists say it will. To me that's all set up by higher ups. It's greed plain and simple. Nothing is causing this but the economists.
My greatest happiness is the $ 28,000 biweekly profit I get consistently.
These videos are extremely clickbait. Using the same thumbnail images and headings for multiple videos saying the same thing in a different way.
you dance a lot which is disturbing.
Whole Life Insurance is guarantee 3% a year
Gold & Silver
Land
Home, Commercial and Government Real Estate
We’re probably in a recession now… jobs paying pennies
People are ignorant of profitability in investing and that has been there major limitations
The fed just crash the stock market?
You mean the fed already crashed the moment you and ppl crying for bailouts and QE printing money go brrrr sky high into stock market buybacks for no reason promising inflation wont be a problem and suddenly they have to increase interest rate a tickle bit and ppl just scream AHHHH STOCKS ARE CRASHING!???
Funny how Joe and Obama make the stock market drop. TRUMP saved us. Then some American's missed the decline. So they voted to destroy the economy. Enjoy the high prices Biden supporters. SMH
Democrats America 👎👎👎
I had never heard of the Men's Underwear index or Lipstick index until Graham mentioned them.
The Underwear Index 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I'm just hoping this doesn't last too long. I just got into the investment games and everything is deep in the negative. It appears I'm losing badly. I know things will get better but right now it just looks like I'm poorer than I was lol.
you’re doing us all a favor and for the free price of a thumbs up. great work !
So your telling me zip recruiter can stop the crash
question is whether investors have the cash to invest? Retail investors usually are all in during the euphoria of a bull run which precedes a recession. I think this time around the question is how higher rates are gonna go up and whether the FED will have the ability to cut back rates again to stimulate the economy. Additionally, the supply situation should improve soon and when it does stimulating the economy will become critical else there will be a price war from A to Z.
Should I sell my bitcoin?
With the high rate of inflation, the economy is heading towards a severe recession. I overheard someone talking about how a couple grew their reserve from $350k to almost $700k during this Red season, Can you share tips on how to make such aggressive proceeds in short periods?
Inflation is rising faster than wages . We’re a consumer based economy. People need to buy goods to keep the economy functioning…. So with that in mind and the cost of living skyrocketing I can’t imagine people feel good about anything.
Are you a bastard son for Elon Mash ?
If the FED can crash the stock market, that means it wasn't legit to begin with, just a blown up fraud caused by QE and TINA.
Let the FED step out and we will see it's true value.
Fuel too costly 4:39 gal as of 5/6/22 can’t spend 60.00 fuel to make 80.00 complete market crash rate hike too soon
5/2/22 fuel cost @. 4:46 gal you can’t spend 60. In fuel to make 85.00 day a complete crash
It's not they are crashing the market. They are just choosing not to keep overinflating it. I can't afford a house now do these assh***s so I am in favor of putting the brakes
But they did raise the rate…
All of the rich are wanting to buy, but nobody wants to sell. The FED is trying soo hard to get people to sell, & they're still soo hungry to collect as much debt as possible! It's already crashed, but everyone will be told, it's ok!
We aint selling sh$t lol
You got a lot to learn
And it's going to effect your young life.
Me I'm 65 seen it and heard it all.
You listening?
Let us put "inflation" fully in perspective here. It hasn't been just someone's costs being passed on down the line, in this environment it has been someone's excessive profits being passed as costs to then next in line and then passed down with varying degrees of excess profit in turn. Companies making record profits (it's public information in their earnings calls) are obviously not merely passing on higher costs, they are the direct cause of those higher costs for everyone else.
Don't you want rates to rise to stop hyper inflation?
Stonks.
So basically investing in the middle of recession could be good, but how about in the middle of inflation… It pretty much looks like stagflation, inflation because of war and supply chain issue and recession because of inflation and geting down inflation is going to take lot more than increasing fed rates, could it be that we are at peak of evolution and something unexpected is going to happen! (May be Thanos is on his way!)
We've been in a recession since the states national debt went into the negative zone sir. When your personal bank account shows up negative? Do you ask yourself if, maybe, perhaps you're broke? No. You know you are broke already.
"We could be in a recession right now"? Ya think?
Should I sell my home and just move back with my parents and cash in the investment ,?
You become quite overwhelming because you don't seem to take a break between your speeches. I get tired after watching your video. Maybe watch Andrei Jikh's videos. He's really good at that.
When it comes to investment, diversification is key. That is why I have my interests set on key sectors based on performance and projected growth. They range from the EV sector, renewable energy, Tech and Health.
Ahh peter schiff has taught him well
Recessions are Healthy
“So when times are tough, women buy MORE lipstick, and men STOP buying underwear.” -probably some alien professor teaching their class about humans
Thanks for sharing this valuable information Graham.